水资源约束力的内涵、研究意义及战略框架

针对世界和我国快速城市化进程中水资源对社会经济发展制约作用不断加强的态势,首次较为系统地提出了水资源约束力的概念,并在阐述其基本内涵和研究意义的基础上,就水资源约束力研究的战略框架进行了初步探讨。研究认为:水资源约束力研究是我国和世界21世纪水安全研究的重要内容之一;在水资源承载力、水资源压力研究的基础上,进一步研究水资源约束力,可以完整地揭示水资源系统与社会经济系统之间的相互作用和关系,对水资源科学的发展具有重要的理论和现实意义;当前应尽快建立并完善水资源约束力研究的理论体系,加强水资源约束力的基本理论、量化方法和实证研究,重点加强区域水资源约束力的产生、影响因素、影响机制、变化规律、调控途径等的研究,并不断拓展研究领域,加强水资源约束力与水资源科学其它领域的集成研究。     

铁路环保选线方法及评价体系研究

环保选线是铁路勘察设计工作的重要内容,但目前环保选线的方法和评价体系尚未完全建立。以我国北方地区某新建铁路穿越城区段工程为例,识别并筛选了影响线路方案的环境因素,探讨建立涉及环境敏感区、城市规划区、既有车站的环保选线方法和评价体系;并将该方法体系运用于线路方案环境比选研究。研究结果表明,该评价体系可以较清晰地反映不同方案在环境敏感性、规划相容性、工程可实施性、施工期环境影响、运营期噪声影响等方面的优劣,可以为铁路环保选线、环境可行性分析、环境影响评价等工作提供参考和思路。     

遗传禁忌搜索的能量均衡深井安全监测WSN分簇路由算法

针对深井巷道无线传感器网络（Wireless Sensor Networks，WSN）安全监测中节点能量消耗不均匀导致网络生命周期较短的问题，在分析低功耗自适应集簇分层型算法（Low Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy，LEACH）、遗传算法（Genetic Algorithm，GA）和禁忌搜索算法（Tabu Search Algorithm，TS）的基础上，提出遗传禁忌搜索的能量均衡深井安全监测WSN分簇路由算法（GTSR-EB），以分簇方式来减少数据发送量与寻优开销，利用优化GA算法和TS算法进行多路径搜索以选出一条能耗均衡、路径传输距离最短的最优路径。仿真实验表明:GTSR-EB算法网络存活周期为LEACH算法的2.17倍、GA算法的1.18倍，GTSR-EB网络能量利用率更高、生存周期更长。     

“十四五”生态环境保护国际合作思路与实施路径探讨

生态环境国际合作是构建人类命运共同体建设的重要内容。"十三五"时期,我国在推动生态文明建设取得显著成效的同时,生态环境保护国际合作取得积极进展。本文在分析生态环境保护国际合作现状、不足以及面临新形势的基础上,提出坚持底线思维,突出重点,精准对接,以我为主、以外促内等合作原则,建议"十四五"时期加强战略规划和引领,提升生态环境国际合作的地位和作用,以建设性姿态参与全球环境治理,努力实现国内环境治理、全球环境治理以及全球治理良性互动,提升生态环境国际合作在服务国家总体发展战略中的地位和水平。并为此提出五大重点举措:即打造绿色"一带一路"成为区域环境合作的平台高地;更具建设性加强我与周边国家双边及多边环境合作;坚决维护多边主义的立场,主动参与全球环境治理体系变革;助力擦亮绿色底色,全力支撑服务打赢污染防治攻坚战;加快能力建设形成生态环境国际合作与交流的大格局。     

农业区域战略环境影响评价中生态风险评价指标体系研究

生态风险评价是近几年逐渐兴起并不断发展的一个研究领域。它的产生适应于20世纪80年代环境治理目标和环境治理观念的转变。生态风险评价是对生态系统或其组分受到的风险进行评价。目前的研究实例主要有重金属污染对水域及土壤生态系统的风险评价,生物技术带来的生态风险评价,城镇化生态风险评价等,但是很少见到对农业生态系统的生态风险评价。农业在其经济中具有举足轻重的地位,因此对其农田生态风险进行评价,具有非常重要的理论及现实意义。本论文对农业生态系统的特点进行了叙述,提出了农业生态系统的风险评价指标体系的总体思路,再通过系统分析,最终构建了适合农业生态系统的风险评价指标体系。     

生态足迹模型的修正及其应用研究进展

生态足迹模型作为度量区域可持续发展程度的方法已用于多领域多层次的评价,也被越来越多的学者研究、分析、修正和质疑。文章在阅读该领域重要文献和报告的基础上,对国内外学者提出的各类生态足迹修正模型进行梳理,并聚焦于生态足迹与其他测度指标的结合以及其在战略环境评价中的应用,对生态足迹模型作为环境评估工具的潜力及其未来的研究方向提出个人的看法。     

Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change

Uncertainties hamper the implementation of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). In order to quantitatively characterize the uncertainties of environmental impacts, this paper develops an integrated methodology through uncertainty analysis on land use change, which combines the scenario analysis approach, stochastic simulation technique, and statistics. Dalian city in China was taken as a case study in the present work. The results predict that the Fuzhou River poses the highest environmental pollution risk with a probability of 89.63% for COD in 2020. Furthermore, the Biliu River, Fuzhou River, Zhuang River, and Dasha River have 100% probabilities for NH₃-N. NH₃-N is a more critical pollutant than COD for all rivers. For COD, industry is the critical pollution source for all rivers except the Zhuang River. For NH₃-N, agriculture is the critical pollution source for the Biliu River, Yingna River, and Dasha River, sewage for the Fuzhou River and Zhuang River, and industry for the Dengsha River. This methodology can provide useful information, such as environmental risk, environmental pressure, and extremely environmental impact, especially under considerations of uncertainties. It can also help to ascertain the significance of each pollution source and its priority for control in urban planning.     

试论旅游经济与环境保护的关系——以香溪河风景线为例

阐述了旅游经济与环境保护矛盾的由来;分析了旅游经济系统,景观生态系统的结构与功能。指出旅游经济系统的旅游产品结构、旅游行业结构同环境保护关系最为密切,只有对其结构实行优化,才可能解决它们与景观生态系统结构之间的矛盾,把旅游经济活动对生态与环境影响降低到最小程度。旅游经济系统功能与景观生态系统功能,受其经济影响也经常处于矛盾状态之中。自然景观生态系统是通过食物链和食物网进行物质、能量传递的,倘若旅游     

青藏铁路决策的战略环境影响识别

本文在对青藏铁路决策进行分析的基础上,论述了对青藏铁路决策进行战略环境影响识别的必要性,探讨了青藏铁路施工期和运营期的环境影响,并提出了减缓环境影响的措施。     

Using Strategic Foresight to Assess Conservation Opportunity

The nature of conservation challenges can foster a reactive, rather than proactive approach to decision making. Failure to anticipate problems before they escalate results in the need for more costly and time‐consuming solutions. Proactive conservation requires forward‐looking approaches to decision making that consider possible futures without being overly constrained by the past. Strategic foresight provides a structured process for considering the most desirable future and for mapping the most efficient and effective approaches to promoting that future with tools that facilitate creative thinking. The process involves 6 steps: setting the scope, collecting inputs, analyzing signals, interpreting the information, determining how to act, and implementing the outcomes. Strategic foresight is ideal for seeking, recognizing, and realizing conservation opportunities because it explicitly encourages a broad‐minded, forward‐looking perspective on an issue. Despite its potential value, the foresight process is rarely used to address conservation issues, and previous attempts have generally failed to influence policy. We present the strategic foresight process as it can be used for proactive conservation planning, describing some of the key tools in the foresight tool kit and how they can be used to identify and exploit different types of conservation opportunities. Scanning is an important tool for collecting and organizing diverse streams of information and can be used to recognize new opportunities and those that could be created. Scenario planning explores how current trends, drivers of change, and key uncertainties might influence the future and can be used to identify barriers to opportunities. Backcasting is used to map out a path to a goal and can determine how to remove barriers to opportunities. We highlight how the foresight process was used to identify conservation opportunities during the development of a strategic plan to address climate change in New York State. The plan identified solutions that should be effective across a range of possible futures. Illustrating the application of strategic foresight to identify conservation opportunities should provide the impetus for decision makers to explore strategic foresight as a way to support more proactive conservation policy, planning, and management.